Abu Dhabi Tour 2017 – Overall Preview

By David Hunter

After a change in calendar, we return to Abu Dhabi just four months after the last edition. The move from October to February is a sensible one for the organisers, extending the time the riders can spend in this part of the world. It also increases the chances of wind playing a part in some of the stages. Echelons!

Route

Stage 1

The opening stage is the one most likely to be disrupted by the wind. The peloton spend almost the entire stage in the desert, making it likely we’ll see echelons. Of course, for this to happen we need the wind to be coming from the correct direction. If not, it’s a boring roll until the sprint finish.

Stage 2

The second stage is around the marina area, making it very likely we’ll see a big bunch sprint. This race is now in direct competition with Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, but that is good news for pure sprinters. Those that have no chance in Belgium are delighted to come to the sun and have three sprint stages. The sprinters here will ensure a competitive end to the flat stages.

Stage 3

The Queen stage, with the big climb to Jebel Hafeet. Those who have watched the last two editions of this race will know the climb well, it is tough.

Officially the climb is 10.8km at 6.6%, but that does include a gentle opening 1.5km and an easy section from 8.5km to just before the end. You can see that it does average 8% from 1.5km to 8.5km, that is tough. Add in the heat and you can see why the race explodes on this climb.

Stage 4

I hate this stage. Lap after lap on a racing circuit, is the most soul destroying stage for any cycling fan. Very boring!

Sprinters

Astana – they have the young Italian, Riccardo Minali. He was very impressive in Dubai, ending the week with a podium spot in the final stage. He is certainly one to keep an eye on as we go through 2017.

Bahrain – Niccolò Bonifazio is their main man, but they really have a team built around their GC hopes. He will have the help of Boaro and Navardauskas, which should put him into a strong position. The Italian is very good at looking after himself in the closing kilometres, so I would expect to see a lot of him this week.

Bardiani – after taking a 3rd place in San Juan, Nicola Ruffoni, will come here with some confidence. This is contract year for the Italian, he needs some big performances after a disappointing couple of seasons. The pressure is on, but he’ll struggle against this level of rivals.

Bora Hansgrohe – Matteo Pelucchi’s move to Bora has already been good for the Italian. I think he got too comfortable at IAM in his final season, a real shame as it was a year wasted. When he is fit and on form, he is one of the fastest sprinters in the world. I always remember that Greg Henderson told me he thought Pelucchi was “Greipel fast”. High praise indeed from a man that would know. He arrives with a small train, but Rudiger Selig is a great man to have at your side.

Lotto Soudal – Andre Greipel has started the season in fine form, taking wins in Mallorca and the Algarve. His performance in Portugal was impressive, considering he was up against the best sprinters in the world. He comes to this race with a team mainly built for the GC, he’ll only have help from Lars Bak, Adam Hansen and Sean De Bie. It will be up to De Bie to try and place Greipel on a good wheel inside the final 2km. Then it will be over to Greipel. This is his first race against Kittel in 2017, it should be fun to watch!

Orica Scott – after a brilliant start to the season, the Aussies arrive with Caleb Ewan, looking to test himself against the best sprinters in the world. They bring together Kluge and Mezgec, for the first time. I would expect Kluge to hand over to Mezgec, who will guide Ewan into position. This is an incredibly strong train, although shorter than some of the others. I’ll also be interested to see if Ewan has remained at his TDU level. If he has, a stage win is on the cards.

QuickStep – the Belgians arrive with Marcel Kittel. The German started very well in Dubai, winning two stages and the overall. He’s here without his recognised lead-out train, as the team chase stage and GC goals. He’ll have Martinelli, Vakoc, Serry and Sabatini at his disposal. We will have to wait and see the order of the riders, but Sabatini is there, so Kittel will be happy. This race is important for him as he faces up to Greipel and Cavendish.

Dimension Data – they arrive with Mark Cavendish, the ambassador of the race. He’s had a strange start to the season. He was dogged by bad luck in Dubai, then seemed to be leading out EBH early in Algarve. He was due to sprint later in the race, but was hampered by poor positioning. It certainly hasn’t been the start he would have wanted. He arrives here with Eisel and Renshaw, his old buddies. Looking at the field, he won’t find it easy to take wins.

Team Sky – after a disappointing Dubai Tour, Viviani resets and comes back east. He won’t have a huge amount of support, mainly Owain Doull and Jon Dibben. Viviani did end the Dubai Tour with a 2nd place finish and he usually likes this part of the world, but he will relish the challenge of sprinting against the best in the world.

UAE Abu Dhabi – I was amazed that Andrea Guardini landed a two year contract with UAE Abu Dhabi. This is their home race, so he’ll be under huge pressure to deliver a big result. In Ben Swift and Simone Consonni, he has two excellent lead out men. Guardini had a slow start in San Juan, 4th place was his best finish. Given the position he should be delivered into, his team will be expecting him to feature on the podium this week.

GC Contenders

Fabio Aru – after a pleasing Tour of Oman, the Italian arrives here full of confidence. He knows this climb and will back himself to beat the world’s best. It doesn’t look like he’ll have amazing support late in the Queen stage, with only Tanel Kangert expected to last the distance. Despite being the defending champion, I expect the Estonian to be riding for Aru. The Italian is capable of finishing the race on the podium.

Romain Bardet – didn’t have the race he expected in Oman. Thanks to a crash on the Queen stage, he wasn’t able to perform at 100%. With that race in his legs, he will come here feeling ready to perform near his best. He’ll be very hard to drop on the mountain stage.

Vincenzo Nibali – he’s raced in every addition of this race, but never really threatened. His 8th place in San Juan was a decent start to the season considering how he sometimes begins. Bahrain will be looking for a good result in this race, considering where it is in the world. He will be supported by Brajkovic, Pellizotti and Siutsou which is a solid group of support riders. After a period at altitude, you never can tell how Nibali reacts. Sometimes he goes well and on other occasions he is dreadful. We will have to wait and see.

Tejay Van Garderen – this is the American’s opening race of 2017. He normally starts the season fast and performs extremely well in extreme heat. He is targeting the Giro this season, that might change how fast he starts the season. In Nico Roche and Sami Sanchez, he has two strong riders to support him on the Queen stage. Van Garderen has a lot of haters out there, I disagree with most. He is a brilliant rider in week long races, I hope to see him do well here.

Rafal Majka – I find it impossible predicting when the Pole is going to be on form! In 2016 he was great in the Giro and Tour, the rest of the time he really didn’t deliver in the big races. In 2015 he did well in Oman, the Tour and Vuelta. Way back in 2014 he was more consistent, performing well in the Giro, Tour, Poland and USA Pro Challenge. He is a rider that does peak for grand tours, and can be poor at preparation races. You decide which Majka is going to show up!

Rafa Valls – 2016 was not a year to remember for the Spaniard. Injury managed to ruin most of his first season with Lotto, but he’s started 2017 in good form. His 7th place in the Tour Down Under was a welcome return to form. He is a fan of races in this part of the world and the fact that this race will be decided on the Queen stage is great news for him. He is a rider that constantly misses out on bonus seconds early in races.

Nairo Quintana – what a start to 2017. The Colombian danced up that brutal climb in Valenciana, just what we wanted to see. He is a class above the rest of the climbers in this field and must start the race as the big favourite. It’s up to everyone else to try and beat him. Will they?

Roman Kreuziger – first race for Orica Scott, and a rare chance to ride for himself. No idea what form he currently has, but he’ll want to impress on debut.

Gianluca Brambilla – was 6th here in 2015. The Italian had a great 2016 and I expect more of the same this year. He is a very good climber, but not quite at the level of some of his rivals here. He’ll hope that QuickStep can blow the race apart in the desert. Also on the team is Julian Alaphilippe. As there is only one mountain stage, we might just see the French rider go for GC. Having already on the Tour of California, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his bosses try to steer him in this direction.

Merhawi Kudus – great start to 2017 for him already, with 2nd on the Queen stage in Valenciana and 4th overall in Oman. He does need to be a bit more patient, as attacking early seemed to hurt his chances in Oman. Saying that, I do love attacking riders! He is climbing well just now and will want to take advantage of his current form.

Ilnur Zakarin – the Russian had an outstanding 2016, consistent throughout. He finished 7th in Algarve, 4th in Paris-Nice, 7th in Catalunya, 5th in Liege, 4th in Romandie, 5th in the Giro until he crashed and a stage winner in the Tour. That was one hell of a season! He was in training mode in Valenciana, but I would expect him to be more competitive in this race.

Steven Kruijswijk – some slight changes to his training schedule resulted in a nice start in Valenciana, finishing 8th on GC. The Dutchman is not a rider that usually performs well until later in the season, but that was a promising sign. His ride in the Giro, was the best performance of 2016, but we are all wondering if he’ll be able to follow that up in 2017.

Tom Dumoulin – it’s the first race of the season for the big Dutchman, he’s recently been on an altitude training camp. He started the season well in 2016, finishing 4th in Oman. He is in the process of turning into a grand tour contender, it will be interesting to see how he matches up to the “pure” climbers.

Peter Kennaugh – Team Sky have a number of riders who could be team leader, but I hope they go with Kennaugh. He’s one of those loyal domestiques that Sky seem to have in bucket loads, but he would be team leader in many squads. When given the chance to lead, he rarely lets the team down.

Alberto Contador – started the season well in Andalucia, he probably would have won if it wasn’t for dogs! The decision to send him here was interesting, they feel that he needs a little more racing in his legs. Whenever he races, he races to win. I think we’d all love to see him battle with Quintana.

Bauke Mollema – started the season in outstanding form, winning Vuelta San Juan. Mollema has been put under pressure by the signing of Contador, but he has responded in the right way, by getting better. He is focused on the Giro, so will be expecting that good early form to last for a while. Has a real chance in this race, especially with Contador here. Trek will outnumber the other teams late in the big stage.

Rui Costa – what a tremendous start to 2017, better than I can remember him ever being. He won the Queen stage in San Juan, finishing 5th overall, and then he had two 2nd places in Oman and finished 2nd overall. This is his team’s home race, so they’ll be wanting a big result from him. Given his recent form, he has a good chance of making another podium.

Here is my video preview with Brian Smith: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x0ofdTGKLs

Prediction Time

Quintana v Contador v Aru v Nibali v Bardet. That is some line up for this race. Given the way he was climbing in Valenciana, I’ll go with Nairo Quintana.

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