Dubai Tour 2015 – Overall Preview

By David Hunter

The World Tour peloton rolls into affluent Dubai, for 4 days of racing. This is just the second edition of the race, and the organisers have substantially changed the parcours. Gone is the TT and in it’s place is a hill finish. In are the normal allocation of bonus seconds: 10, 6 and 4, these could have a big impact on the overall outcome.

With 3 flat, easy looking days, there are plenty of sprinters here. The sprint days look very appealing for all riders, at this time of year.

Stage 1 stays in the city and is a nailed on sprint. Lovely and flat, it involves a few laps of a city circuit.

Stage 2 looks equally appealing, but it does venture out of the city and into the desert. If the wind blows, anything could happen.

Stage 3 is the GC day, ending with a ramp of 17%.

Stage 4 and another day for the sprinters to shine.

With 3 favourable stages we have Cavendish, Guardini, Ruffoni, Stepniak, Cimolai, Lobato, Palini, Degenkolb, Porsev, Viviani, Swift, Kolar and Ratto.

It should be a straight fight between Cav, Degenkolb, Lobato, Ruffoni and Viviani. OPQS will want to impose themselves and dominate the sprint trains, if they do, Cavendish will have a great chance of collecting 3 stage wins and 30 bonus seconds.

I mention the bonus seconds as they will have a very important role in the GC battle. Stage 3 is a strange one!

This is the end of the stage. Basically a 200 metre climb: 100m at 8% and 100m at 15%. Such a short climb(if it can be called that) isn’t going to be a problem for the sprinters. You need power for the effort required and they have lots of it. The issue for them is being there at the end. The stage is littered with short, steep climbs and this will have a big impact on the riders around at the end.

A dominant sprinter could start stage 3 with a 20 second advantage over the peloton, but that won’t matter if they’ve been spat out the back door, 40km from the end of the stage.

That means the focus should be on the punchy riders: Valverde, Gilbert, Quinziato, Rodriguez, Nibali, Boom, Pozzato, Battaglin, Thomas, Visconti, Bole, Chernetskii, Kiserlovski, Bakelants and Valgren.

It’s very strange previewing a 4 day race, that will be decided in the closing 200 metres of a stage. The turn onto the climb is very tight, so positioning and teammates will be very important. You need to be in the first 10 riders to stand a chance, so looking at who has the fastest teammates is valid.

Valverde arrives with a strong squad, probably the best in the race: Capecchi, Castroviejo, Jesus Herrada, Lobato, Malori, Lastras and Visconti. These boys will deliver Alejandro to the very front of the race and let him sprint it out for glory.

At this time of the season, it’s very difficult to predict who’s in form, but you would have to think that Gilbert, Boom, Pozzato and Thomas will be in the mix. All riders have the necessary power to cope with the finish.

Some sprinters could still be in the mix. Ben Swift made big strides in 2014 and is certainly a good climber. Both he and Lobato could still be there and if they already have bonus seconds, they just need to follow wheels. How much time can they lose in 200 metres?

I earlier mentioned wind, this could become a factor. We all know that the Dutch and Belgian riders excel in these conditions but there aren’t many here: Bakelants, Vansummeren, Lodewyck, De Vreese, Gilbert, Vermote, Boom and Waeytens. If they wind picks up, expect to see these boys mixing it up.

Another factor to consider is breakaways. If a break succeeds, then the GC is over. All the teams will be aware of that, but in such a short race, it’s a possibility. Anything could happen!

Prediction Time

I will be amazed if the sprinters can get over this climb, in stage 3.

With, just over 40km remaining, the peloton tackle this climb from both directions. The first ascent is fairly straightforward, with the last 2km at 6%, then they descend, before climbing it from the more difficult side. 2.5km at 9% is simply too hard for the sprinters. Expect the non-sprinter teams to really accelerate on the climb, in an attempt to eliminate the quicks.

The last 20km, of stage 3, isn’t easy either. Mostly uphill with a couple of 500 metre long, 8% ramps. Of all the sprinters, Ben Swift and JJ Lobato have the best chance of surviving but it’s still going to be hard for them.

Challenging Valverde will be Gilbert, but he never usually wins in his first race of the season.

Lars Boom tested his form in the TDU and he arrives with Nibali. They won’t admit it but Boom looks a better option here, especially if we get some wind. His ability to pick up intermediate sprints could be invaluable.

My other rider to watch is Katusha’s Sergei Chernetckii. I remember watching him fight out uphill sprints, back in the 2013 Vuelta a Burgos. He is a serious climber but also has a good uphill sprint. If the other teams focus on Rodriguez, he could get an easy ride.

The weather forecast look goods with sun and little wind. That means it should be all to play for on stage 3. Valverde is the overwhelming favourite, due to his form in Mallorca. His team are very strong and, if delivered, in the correct position with 200 metres remaining, I can’t see him getting beaten. Another win for Alejandro!

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